Prediction: Mortgage Delinquencies Will Decline in 2011

The annual consumer credit forecast from U.S. credit bureau TransUnion predicts a 20 percent drop in national mortgage loan delinquencies by the end of 2011.

TransUnion predicts that the number of delinquent accounts — 60 or more days past due — will drop to 4.98 percent from an expected 6.21 percent at the conclusion of 2010.

The projected decrease would more than double the 9.87 percent yearly decline that is expected between the end of 2009 and 2010 (from 6.89 percent to 6.21 percent).

TransUnion anticipates at least double-digit declines in mortgage delinquencies in every state and the District of Columbia through 2011.

“Interestingly, the states projected to experience the greatest decreases in mortgage delinquencies – Nevada, Arizona, and Florida – are the same areas expected to have the highest 60-day mortgage delinquency rates at the end of next year,” TransUnion said.

TransUnion foresees North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska having the lowest delinquency rates in 2011.

“We believe the nation will see a more robust improvement in mortgage delinquencies through the end of 2011,” said Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial services group.

Chaouki continued, “TransUnion expects a steady and improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization or rise in housing prices. A key driver that will lead the reversal in mortgage delinquencies next year will be an increase in the areas of the country experiencing a rise in property values and stabilization of values in those states and markets hardest hit by the recession.”